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The National Association of Home Builders’ State Projections of Remodeling estimates that remodeling spending was flat across the states in the second quarter of 2026. Spending fell in 26 states and rose in 24, while only North Carolina and Illinois among the 10 states with the largest remodeling market shares recorded growth.
Remodeling spending was flat across the United States in the second quarter of 2026, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ State Projections of Remodeling, even as the broader housing market slowed. The estimates show declines in 26 states and increases in 24 states, leaving average state growth at 0.0% and pointing to uneven activity rather than a uniform drop.
The NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling (SPR) provides quarterly estimates of remodeling spending and market share by state. Its Q2 results were nearly evenly divided: spending declined in 26 states and increased in 24. The report does not provide a national dollar total in the supplied results, so the 0.0% figure describes the average growth rate across states, not a stated change in total U.S. spending.
Growth was concentrated in smaller states, NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said. Among the 10 states with the largest remodeling market shares, only North Carolina and Illinois recorded growth. The report does not identify the size of those states’ increases or give a full state-by-state list of changes in the supplied material.
The SPR estimates are produced using a proprietary NAHB statistical model. The association says the model combines national quarterly home-improvement spending data with multiple state-level indicators and NAHB’s annual state remodeling forecast. The figures are model-based estimates, rather than a direct count of completed projects or spending reported by every contractor.
Flat Spending Across Uneven Markets
The near-even split suggests that remodeling businesses may face different conditions depending on where they operate. The result offers a state-level signal for contractors and suppliers, but the 0.0% average should not be read as proof that every market held steady: 26 states recorded declines while 24 posted increases.
NAHB attributes pressure on projects to rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment. For homeowners, those conditions can affect project budgets and decisions about whether to proceed, although the report does not quantify cancellations, delays or changes in project size. For retailers and remodelers, the results indicate a subdued near-term environment alongside longer-term demand factors identified by the association.
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Costs, Confidence and Housing Stock
NAHB said the flat second-quarter outcome was consistent with its forecast for remodeling spending in 2026. The association also reported that its Remodeling Market Index, a measure of remodeler confidence, had stayed above 60 for the past year. That index is a separate measure from spending: sustained confidence does not mean spending grew in the quarter.
Remodelers’ chairman Elliott Pike cited an aging housing stock, homeowners’ accumulated home equity, the mortgage rate lock-in effect and demand for aging-in-place upgrades as factors that could support future growth. These are NAHB’s assessment of longer-term drivers, not evidence that spending has already accelerated.
The sector has also expanded over time by firm count. NAHB reported 128,000 remodeling firms at the start of 2025, compared with 69,000 in 2000. Those counts describe the number of firms, not the number of active projects or the quarter’s spending trend.
Limits of the State Estimates
The supplied report does not state the national dollar value of remodeling spending, the year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter comparison period used for each state’s growth rate, or the size of individual state changes. It also does not explain how the 0.0% average across states relates to a weighted national total. Readers should not infer that total U.S. spending was exactly unchanged from that average alone.
The SPR relies on a proprietary statistical model, and the supplied material does not provide its state-level inputs, confidence ranges or revision history. It is also unclear how much of the flat result reflects higher project costs, fewer projects, changes in project size or other factors. NAHB’s statements about future growth are forecasts and expectations, not confirmed outcomes.
Watch for Later Remodeling Data
NAHB’s next quarterly State Projections of Remodeling release will provide a further state-by-state estimate and show whether the second-quarter pattern continues, reverses or becomes more geographically concentrated. The source material does not specify a publication date for that release.
For a clearer picture of demand, readers can compare later SPR estimates with the Remodeling Market Index and subsequent information on home-improvement spending. Until those updates are available, the confirmed takeaway is limited to the Q2 model results: average state growth was 0.0%, with state outcomes split between 26 declines and 24 increases.
Key Questions
What did NAHB report about remodeling in Q2 2026?
NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling estimated that the average growth rate across states was 0.0%. Spending declined in 26 states and increased in 24.
Did remodeling spending fall in every state?
No. The estimates show declines in 26 states and increases in 24 states. North Carolina and Illinois were the only states among the 10 largest remodeling markets to record growth, according to NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.
Does the 0.0% figure mean total national spending was unchanged?
Not necessarily. The report describes it as the average growth rate across all states. The supplied material does not give a national dollar total or explain how the state average relates to a weighted national spending figure.
What factors did NAHB say are weighing on remodeling?
NAHB remodelers’ chairman Elliott Pike cited rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment as pressures on projects. He also pointed to aging homes, home equity and aging-in-place upgrades as possible longer-term sources of demand.
What data should readers watch next?
A later State Projections of Remodeling release can show whether the state-level pattern persists. The supplied report does not give a date for the next release, and future estimates will be needed to assess whether activity changes.
Source: hardwareretailing.com
